«2024? Growth will be moderate but rates will return to pre-Covid levels”

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How does all this affect Italy and Lombardy?

We are already seeing some effects: the industry is in a phase of deceleration, although not of contraction, mainly due to the decline in domestic demand, which had instead been an important driving force in recent years. Exports, however, remain lively, although not at the pace of the past, and guarantee a trade balance which is also decelerating, but still very positive. However, the long tail of orders accumulated in the strong growth phase has run out, so 2024 will be a year of slowdown for the industry, even if in the second part of the year the situation should improve and we therefore expect growth in the end below 1%, with a return to the rates we were used to before the pandemic.

Will things go better for the industrial districts most suited to exports?

There are peaks of excellence that will have better results in the sectors that export to the most dynamic countries. Even on foreign markets, however, there is great uncertainty, so it is difficult to give companies a recipe. There is undoubtedly a United States-Europe axis that presents growth rates that are not sensational, but stable, so companies must build their foundations on these markets, in a strategic way. Tactically, however, they can try to develop their business in the fastest growing markets, with the awareness however that these are highly unstable markets, which are therefore good for exports, but are less suitable for direct greenfield investments, especially taking into account that the European Union is thinking of establishing the Cbam, a mechanism intended to protectread their own productions, which have a lower environmental impact, from those coming from countries that do not respect the same ecological standards.

In this regard, can the green and digital transition support the recovery?

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